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The week ahead… GDP, CBI and HRG

The double dip recession will officially be declared over on Thursday when the Office for National Statistics publishes its first estimate of third quarter GDP. Investec expects growth of 0.6pc, ending nine months in which the economy contracted by 1.1pc. However, the figure will be flattered by the automatic rebound from the lost working day for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and recognition of Olympic ticket sales. Underlying growth is expected to be about 0.1pc-0.2pc.

The CBI industrial trends survey on Wednesday will provide more up-to-date clues on the state of the economy. The last survey painted a less gloomy picture of UK manufacturing and a continuation of improving levels of business optimism would be welcome.


Economics: CBI industrial trends survey


The owner of Argos, Home Retail Group, is set for a halving of interim pre-tax profits as it battles the recession and fierce online competition. Philip Dorgan at Panmure Gordon has pencilled in pre-tax profits of £14m, compared to £28m last year and £103m the previous year. Mr Dorgan said: “Home Retail will report another big fall in interim profits on October 24 and we don’t think that the 'not a strategic review’ strategic review of Argos will find a magic bullet. We therefore remain negative: we believe that Argos has too many stores, too high a fixed cost base, it is close to making losses and its competition is too big and too ugly.”

Interim results: Home Retail Group

Economics: CBI Industrial trends survey


Full-year results: Debenhams

Economics ONS: third quarter GDP first estimate

Source : Telegraph

21 October 2012
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