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Economic Data

Welcome to the ‘Economic Data’ section of Insight DIY, which includes a summary of all of the key UK economic indicators that you may need to know within your business. Each of these key indicators are updated as and when they are released by their various sources and provide a really valuable addition to any monthly report or business overview.

Bank of England: Bank Rate

Bank of England logo 150 x 112.jpg

Current bank rate: 0.1%
Previous bank rate: 0.25%

Release date: 19th March 2020
Next release date: 26th March 2020

Source : Bank of England

ONS UK Retail Sales

Retail Sales

The ONS has reported on retail sales for the five-week period 29 December 2019 to 1 February 2020.

Main points:

  • In the three months to January 2020, the quantity bought in the retail sales industry fell by 0.8% when compared with the previous three months, with declines across all sectors.

  • Retail volumes increased by 0.9% in January 2020, recovering from the falls in the previous two months; the increase was mainly because of moderate growth in both food stores (1.7%) and non-food stores (1.3%).

  • Fuel saw a large fall of 5.7% in the quantity bought in January 2020 when compared with December 2019, which coincides with a rise in fuel prices of 2.3 pence per litre between December and January (consumer price inflation, January 2020).

  • Online sales as a proportion of all retailing was 19.0% in January 2020, down from 19.3% in December 2019.

 

 

 

Period: January 2020
Publication Date: 20th February 2020
Next Release Date: 26th March 2020

Unless otherwise stated, the estimates in this release are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Office for National Statistics

UK Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPIH image

Main points for January 2020:

  • The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in January 2020, increasing from 1.4% in December 2019.
  • The largest contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate in January 2020 came from housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.55 percentage points), which increased by 0.19 percentage points since December 2019.
  • The largest upward contributions to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate between December 2019 and January 2020 came from gas and electricity prices; fuels and lubricants; clothing; and airfares.
  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 1.8% in January 2020, increasing from 1.3% in December 2019.

 

 

 

Release Date: 19th February 2020
Next Release: 25th March 2020

Price indices, percentage changes and weights for the different measures of consumer price inflation. 

Source: Office for National Statistics

UK Producer Price Inflation (PPI)

Producer Price Index

Main points for January 2020:

  • The headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 1.1% on the year to January 2020, up from 0.9% in December 2019.

  • The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process was 2.1% on the year to January 2020, up from 0.9% in December 2019.

  • Petroleum products made the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rate of output inflation.

  • Imported metals provided the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rate of input inflation. 

Release Date: 19th February 2020
Next Release: 25th March 2020

Source: Office for National Statistics

UK Labour Market

Unemployment office

Unemployment rate: 3.8% (October to December 2019)
Previous rolling quarter: 3.7% (September to November 2019)

Main points (October to December 2019) 

  • The UK employment rate was estimated at a record high of 76.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points up on the previous quarter.

  • The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at a record low of 20.5%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous year and 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

  • Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain slowed to 2.9% from 3.2% last month for total pay (including bonuses) and to 3.2% from 3.4% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).

  • In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 1.4% and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.8%.

  • There were an estimated 810,000 vacancies in the UK for November 2019 to January 2020; this is 7,000 more than the previous quarter but 50,000 fewer than a year earlier.

Publication date: 18th February 2020
Next publication date: 17th March 2020

The level and rate of UK unemployment measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS) using a definition of unemployment specified by the International Labour Organisation. Unemployed people as those without a job who have been actively seeking work in the past 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next 2 weeks. It also includes those who are out of work but have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next 2 weeks.

Source: Office for National Statistics

UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross Domestic Product

Main points

  • UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was flat in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019, following revised growth of 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019.
  • When compared with the same quarter a year ago, UK GDP increased by 1.1% to Quarter 4 2019; down from a revised 1.2% in the previous period.
  • Services and construction contributed positively to growth in the output approach to GDP in Quarter 4 2019, while production output contributed negatively to growth.
  • Private consumption, government consumption and net trade contributed positively to growth in the expenditure approach to GDP, while gross capital formation contributed negatively to growth in Quarter 4 2019.
  • GDP was estimated to have increased by 1.4% between 2018 and 2019 slightly above the 1.3% growth seen between 2017 and 2018.

 

 

 

 

Release Date: 11th February 2020
Next Release Date: 31st March 2020

Preliminary, second and final estimates of GDP released over a quarter as more data becomes available. The final estimate is published in the Quarterly National Accounts. GDP is the main measure of UK economic growth based on the value of goods and services produced during a given period.

Source: Office for National Statistics

BRC - KPMG Retail Sales Monitor

Retail Sales image

Covering the five weeks 29 December 2019 - 1 February 2020

  • On a Total basis, sales increased by 0.4% in January, against an increase of 2.2% in January 2019. This is above both the 3-month and 12-month average declines of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The 12-month average hit a new record low since our records began in 1995.

  • In January, UK retail sales were flat on a Like-for-like basis from January 2019, when they had increased 1.8% from the preceding year.

  • Over the three months to January, Food sales decreased 0.1% on a Like-for-like basis and increased 0.6% on a Total basis. This is below the 12-month Total average growth of 1.2%, the lowest since February 2017.

  • Over the three-months to January, Non-Food retail sales in the UK decreased by 1.5% on a like-for-like and 1.3% on a Total basis. This is in line with the 12-month Total average. For the month of January, Non-Food was in slight growth year-on-year.

  • Over the three months to January, In-store sales of Non-Food items declined 3.0% on a Total and 3.3% on a Like-for-like basis. This is slightly better than the 12-month Total average decline of 3.1%.

  • Online Non-Food sales increased by 2.5% in January, against a growth of 5.4% in January 2019. This is lower than the 3m and 12m averages of 2.6% and 3.1% respectively.

  • Non-Food Online penetration rate increased from 29.5% in January 2019 to 30.6%.

Release Date:  5th February 2020
Next Release Date: 4th March 2020

Source: BRC

UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (Markit and CIPS)

Markit IHS 150 x 112.jpg

Index: 48.4 January 2020
Previous month: 44.4 December 2019

Construction output falls at slowest pace since May 2019

Key findings:

  • New orders close to stabilisation in January
  • Construction firms report a boost from receding political uncertainty 
  • Business optimism rebounds to its highest since April 2018

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by construction firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the construction sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the construction sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge.

Publication date: 3rd February 2020
Next publication date: 3rd March 2020

Source: Markit Economics

Nationwide House Price Index

House Prices

January Monthly Index*: 434.4 (December 2019: 431.9) 
Monthly Change*: +0.5% (December 2019: +0.1%)
Annual Change to January: +1.9% (December: 2019: +1.4%)
January 2020 Average Price: £215,897 (December 2019: £215,282) (not seasonally adjusted) 

* Seasonally adjusted figure (note that monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated)

Key Findings

  • Annual house price growth edged up to 1.9% 
  • 0.5% rise month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal factors

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “January saw a further modest pick-up in annual UK house price growth to 1.9%, from 1.4% in December. This follows twelve 12 successive months in which annual price growth had been below 1%.

“Indicators of UK economic activity were fairly volatile for much of 2019, but the underlying pace of growth slowed through the year as a result of weaker global growth and an intensification of Brexit uncertainty.

“Recent data continue to paint a mixed picture. Economic growth appeared to grind to a halt as 2019 drew to a close, though business surveys point to a pickup at the start of the New Year. Labour market data was surprisingly upbeat in the three months to November, with the economy adding over 200,000 jobs - the largest gain since the end of 2018.

“The underlying pace of housing market activity has remained broadly stable, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase continuing within the fairly narrow range prevailing over the past two years. Healthy labour market conditions and low borrowing costs appear to be offsetting the drag from the uncertain economic outlook.

“Looking ahead, economic developments will remain the key driver of housing market trends and house prices. Much will continue to depend on how quickly uncertainty about the UK’s future trading relationships lifts, as well as the outlook for global growth. Overall, we expect the economy to continue to expand at a modest pace in 2020, with house prices remaining broadly flat over the next 12 months."

Source: Nationwide House Price Index

Release Date: 3rd February 2020
Next Release Date: 3rd March 2020

Nationwide is the world's largest building society and one of the UK's largest mortgage providers. It has the longest unbroken run of house price data, stretching back to 1952 on a quarterly basis and 1991 on a monthly basis.  

UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Markit and CIPS)

Markit IHS 150 x 112.jpg

Index: 50.0 - January 2020
Previous month: 47.5 - December 2019

UK manufacturing sector stabilises as political uncertainty subsides

Key findings:

  • UK Manufacturing PMI at 50.0 in January (Flash: 49.8) 
  • New orders, employment and business confidence rise 
  • New export orders fall for third consecutive month

Publication date: 3rd February 2020
Next publication date: 2nd March 2020

Source: Markit Economics

GfK Consumer Confidence Index

GfK 150 x 112

Monthly Index: -9
Previous Month's Index: -11
Monthly Index Previous Year: -14
Period: January 2019

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, says:

“The first month of 2020 has given us a mini Boris-bounce with a two-point increase in our Consumer Confidence headline score. While January marks four years of the Index failing to penetrate positive territory, we now have two consecutive months of improvement. This is good news. The latest measures concerning our personal financial situation for the last and next 12 months are encouragingly healthy and positive, as is the improvement in our view of the wider economic picture for the UK. This is linked to the uptick in the jobs and housing markets, coupled with low headline inflation and interest rates. The Major Purchase Index is the only measure to decline this month, reflecting January’s seasonal post-Christmas empty-wallet feeling, and further impacting the longer-term contraction and sluggishness experienced across the retail sector. However, if current trends continue, we’d expect a return to positive headline scores soon. Are we are finally seeing an end to the UK’s jittery consumer mood?”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – January 2020

The Overall Index Score in January 2020 is -9. Four measures increased, and one measure decreased this month. 

Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased by four points this month to +1; this is one point higher than January 2019. The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has also increased and stands three points higher at +6 this month; this is five points higher than January 2019. 

General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has increased three points this month to -28; this is seven points higher than in January 2019.  Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have also increased three points to -24; this is 15 points higher than January 2019. 

Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index decreased two points in January to +1; this is one point lower than January 2019.

Savings Index
The Savings Index has, however, increased two points this month to +20; this is six points higher than at this time last year.

Release Date: 31st January 2020
Next Release Date: 29th February 2020

Source: GfK

NHBC - New Build Statistics/New Registrations

NHBC logo 150 x 112

Most Recent Monthly Data 

Total Registrations November 2019: 16,175
Total Registrations November 2018: 15,158
Percentage change: +7%

Private Sector November 2019: 10,662
Private Sector November 2018: 11,036

Affordable and Rental Sector November 2019: 5,513
Affordable and Rental Sector November 2018: 4,122

Rolling Quarter Data

Total Registrations (Rolling Qtr September to November 2019): 44,361
Total Registrations (Rolling Qtr September to November 2018): 43,655
Percentage Change: +2%

Private Sector Registrations (Rolling Qtr September to November 2019): 30,416
Private Sector Registrations (Rolling Qtr September 2018 to November 2018): 33,110
Percentage Change: -7%

Affordable and Rental Sector Registrations (Rolling Qtr September to November 2019): 13,945
Affordable and Rental Sector Registrations (Rolling Qtr September to November 2018): 10,918
Percentage Change: +28%

Commenting on the latest figures, NHBC Chief Executive Steve Wood said: “As we near the end of the year, it is good to report resilience in new home numbers, which should give some confidence going into the New Year.

“As ever, construction quality is central to everything NHBC does. We will keep working with the sector to help improve new home quality for the benefit of consumers.”

Release Date: 28th December 2019
Next Release: 31st January 2020

Source: NHBC

NHBC is the leading warranty and insurance provider for new homes in the UK and its registration statistics are a lead indicator for the new homes market.

UK Population Figures

UK Census

UK population: 66,436,000 (mid 2018)
UK population: 66,040,229 (mid 2017)
Percentage change: +0.6%

2018 Data:

Male: 32.8 million (49.4%)
Female: 33.6 million (50.6%)

Estimated population of England: 55,977,000 (84.3% of the UK’s population)
Estimated population of Scotland: 5,438,000 (8.2% of the UK’s population)
Estimated population of Wales: 3,139,000 (4.7% of the UK’s population)
Estimated population of Northern Ireland: 1,882,000 (2.8% of the UK’s population)

Mid-year population estimates relate to the usually resident population. They account for long-term international migrants (people who change their country of usual residence for a period of 12 months or more) but do not account for short-term migrants (people who come to or leave the country for a period of less than 12 months). This approach is consistent with the standard UN definition for population estimates which is based upon the concept of usual residence and includes people who reside, or intend to reside, in the country for at least twelve months, whatever their nationality.

Data last updated: June 2019
Next update: June 2020

Source: ONS

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Insight DIY always publishes the latest news stories before anyone else and we find it to be an invaluable source of customer and market information.

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Max Crosby Browne - CEO, Home Decor
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