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Deloitte says a ‘Christmas miracle’ is needed for UK retailers

Home Retail Group Plc’s Argos and Dixons Retail Plc and may be among the most affected as shoppers cut back on purchasing larger items such as televisions.

December retail sales will be no better than last year’s 36.2 billion pounds ($57 billion), according to Deloitte LLP. That would be the first holiday with no growth since 2008, when the financial crisis that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. caused consumers to cut their budgets.

“It’s as tough as anyone can remember and with sales flat at best this year it’s going to be harder than ever before to be in the winners’ enclosure,” Ian Geddes, retail partner at Deloitte, said in an interview. Only those with strong online offerings are likely to prosper, he said, as consumers seek cheaper prices and convenience by ordering over the Web.

Deloitte estimates that U.K. retail sales will be stagnant until 2013 as consumers face job insecurity, government spending reductions and rising prices. Dixons Retail Plc (DXNS) and Home Retail Group Plc (HOME)’s Argos may be among the most affected as shoppers cut back on purchasing larger items such as televisions, said Matthew Stych, an analyst at Planet Retail. Weak holiday sales could bring “carnage” as some retailers struggle to make quarterly rent payments, he said.

The prospect of slow holiday sales has already led some retailers to start discounting as they seek to entice shoppers. Debenhams Plc (DEB), the U.K.’s second-largest department-store chain, said yesterday it will drop prices by as much as 40 percent for five days starting Nov. 16. That compares with discounts of as much as 25 percent last year.

Online Sales:
Online retailers such as Inc. will be “the big winners” over the holiday, according to Planet Retail’s Stych.

U.K. Internet sales will climb 15 percent to more than 30 billion pounds in December, Deloitte estimates, with more than 40 percent of all transactions by value being influenced by Web research, price comparison and social media recommendations.

John Lewis Partnership Plc, owner of the largest U.K. department-store chain, is among retailers that may benefit most from a shift in consumer behavior toward mobile ordering, online kiosks in stores and home delivery, Stych said. The retailer has rolled out free WiFi in its stores and “click and collect” points where customers who order online can arrange delivery to their local store or Waitrose grocery chain.

Debenhams is installing kiosks on every floor of every store so shoppers can order out-of-stock items, while Marks & Spencer is testing them in three outlets.

Dubbed “Style Online,” Marks & Spencer’s trial is equivalent to a 300 square-foot (27.9 square-meter) boutique, where items not normally available in stores are on display. Customers can browse products, build an outfit online, watch 70-inch screens of women modeling various looks, and then order from touch-screens kiosks or from advisers equipped with Apple Inc. iPads. In the past “no one would have bought a single piece because they didn’t exist in those stores,” Chief Executive Officer Marc Bolland said this month.

NCR, a supplier of kiosks, digital signage and automatic teller machines, says installation of kiosks has risen almost fivefold this year as retailers adapt them to consumer needs.

The outlook for spending in 2012 isn’t encouraging.

“Next year is no good, partly because it’s the first full year of spending cuts, but also job insecurity and uncertainty from the euro zone crisis,” Deloitte’s Geddes said. “Those combined mean customers being much more cautious.”

Source : Sarah Shannon – Bloomberg

16 November 2011
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Thank you for the excellent presentation that you gave at Woodbury Park on Thursday morning. It was very interesting and thought-provoking for our Retail members. The feedback has been excellent.

Martin Elliott. Chief Executive - Home Hardware.

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