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GfK: Consumer confidence rises in June

Measures for personal financial situation over the last 12 months and over the next 12 months both decreased this month; measures for general economic situation of the country over the last 12 months, and over the next 12 months and the major purchase index all post increases in June 2013.

Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, comments:

A one point rise is not of itself important, but what matters more is that it is another marker in what now appears to be a clear upward trend. Other than the probably aberrant large rises and falls in November and December, all of the last 7 times the index has changed rather than staying the same have been upward changes, and the Index now stands 8 points higher than it did last June, and 10 points higher than last April. The annual moving average, which fell from -28 to -27 last month, fell again to -26 this month.

What makes this apparent good cheer somewhat surprising, and which may prevent the government breaking out the champagne quite yet, is that the improvement comes at a time when there has been a flurry of recent reports showing that people are not only getting worse off, but they are likely to continue to do so.

Data released by ONS this month show that Britain has dropped from 5th to 12th in the national standings for real household income, two months after another ONS report showed that real disposable income fell in the last quarter of 2012, as they had for the whole of the last two years.

The one point increase this month seems to have been caused by a 5 point jump in the score for now being a good time to make major purchases, which may simply reflect a lot of special offers by desperate retailers, but the overall trend in confidence over the last year is clearly upwards and not driven purely by special offers. So the paradox is that while we are getting worse and worse off, we are feeling more positive.

Source : Nick Moon - GfK

28 June 2013
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