Nationwide Predicts Over 12m Transactions On Black Friday

• Nationwide predicts more than 260m transactions across November leading up to Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as consumers expected to spend £123 on average
  
  
• 38% of consumers do not plan to buy anything in the sales as they curb spending
  
  
• Younger consumers aged 25-34 are expected to spend the most across Black Friday, around £255 per person
  
  
• Surprising items at the top of wish-lists include vinyl record players, F1 merchandise and Funko Pops and Wayfair reveals increased searches for airfryers and coffee machines

Nationwide is predicting more than 12 million transactions will be made on the first day of the Black Friday sales weekend this year, according to analysis of its debit card spending data. That marks a 10 per cent increase compared to 2024, which saw 11 million transactions. 

It would mean the highest spend on record for Black Friday, according to Britain’s biggest building society. 

This year, shoppers started their Black Friday shopping earlier, separate research from Nationwide suggests, while the Society predicted an average of more than 8.42 million transactions each day from 1 November to 28 November, when the Black Friday sales traditionally start. This would represent a seven per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.*  

However, almost four in ten (38%) consumers say they are not planning to buy anything at all in the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, pointing to lower consumer confidence in the lead-up to the festive period, and continued concerns around managing the cost of living and rising bills.  

Of those planning to spend during the Black Friday sales period, the average Brit is expected to spend £123. Younger consumers, aged 25-34, are expected to spend the most – almost double the UK average at around £255 per person. Gen-Z respondents are planning to spend slightly lower than the UK average, at £119 per person**.  

Shopping patterns 

Nationwide’s research reveals that of those planning to shop the Black Friday sales, more than a fifth (22%) are starting as early as the beginning of November, when many brands will start launching their early Black Friday deals. Almost a third (30%) have already wish-listed specific items or saved items to their basket, and almost a fifth (18%) plan to leave items in the basket to watch if prices will drop further ahead of the sales. 

Half (50%) of respondents reported that they will shop online, and over a quarter (28%) plan to shop for deals on the high street. Shopping across fast-growing e-commerce platforms such as TikTok Shop and Instagram is also a trend for this Black Friday, as almost a quarter (24%) of consumers plan to shop while scrolling social platforms, and more than a third (34%) will shop direct on retailer apps from phones or tablets**.    

Mark Nalder, Service, Operations & Performance Director at Nationwide Building Society said:  

“Undoubtedly, Black Friday remains a key shopping date for most consumers, whether they intend to treat themselves to higher ticket items or household brands, or indulge in their hobbies and interests, or stock up on Christmas presents. As retailers and brands launch Black Friday sales earlier each year, so do savvy UK shoppers, who are planning, searching and wish-listing weeks before the traditional day of Black Friday to ensure they’re getting the best value for money. 

“However, cost of living challenges continue to eat into budgets, which explains why almost 40 per cent of consumers are planning not to buy anything altogether this year. Despite this, it is positive that some Brits are continuing to spend on items that bring them joy, taking advantage of the lower prices to invest in hobbies, interests or wellbeing.”  

Trending items 

The most popular categories for Black Friday shoppers include electronics, fashion, health and beauty, homeware, food and drink and toys, with household brands dominating the shopping wish-list such as Nike, PlayStation, Nintendo, Dyson and LEGO, suggesting that consumers are sticking to tried and trusted brands when searching for deals this year**.    

Homeware, furniture and appliances such home décor and furniture, coffee machines and air fryers were amongst the most popular items in the category. 

Commenting on the Black Friday shopping trends in the furniture retail space, Carey Pearson, Head of Brand Marketing at Wayfair UK added: 

“It’s all about the heart of the home this Black Friday. We’re seeing a real rise in customers creating dedicated dressing spaces at home, and that’s reflected in this year’s trends. Wardrobes, make-up vanities and dressing tables are among our most popular categories, as shoppers look to bring boutique-style organisation into their bedrooms, spare rooms and box rooms." 

At Wayfair.co.uk, we’re also seeing early signs that small kitchen appliances will once again dominate Black Friday shopping lists. Searches for air fryers are already up 11% year on year, while coffee machines saw a 13% rise***. Shoppers are looking for value-driven upgrades to their everyday routines, and we predict that these kitchen favourites are set to be among this year’s most-wanted deals. The increased searches are also reflected in Google UK search trend data, with searches for 'best coffee machines for home' up by 250% and searches for 'best air fryers 2025' up 180%." 

Nationwide’s research also revealed lots of niche items sitting in shopping baskets, from pop culture and retro hobbies, to the highly practical, suggesting that consumers are also taking advantage of Black Friday deals to invest in their personal interests, such as F1 and darts merchandise, to low-fi and retro options, including indoor herb gardens and vinyl record players.  

Based on the data, the top 10 most popular items on consumer’s wishlists are**: 

1. Laptops  
2. Shoes  
3. TVs  
4. Makeup  
5. Watches  
6. Tablets  
7. iPhones  
8. Perfume  
9. PS5 (PlayStation 5)  
10. Headphones 

And among the most unexpected items, the top 10 items are**: 

1. Funko Pops 
2. Vinyl record player 
3. Gas cylinders 
4. F1 merchandise 
5. Indoor herb gardens 
6. Binoculars  
7. Flying lessons 
8. Ice machines 
9. Electric bike 
10. Massage gun 

Source : Nationwide

Image : shutterstock / amedeoemaja / 758476633

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