ONS: Retail Sales Volumes Rose Unexpectedly in December

The ONS has published retail sales data for December, noting that retail sales rose by 0.4% during the month - the first increase since September - but fell in the three months to December 2025. 

Overview

• The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 compared with Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025. Supermarkets and non-store retailers' sales both fell following a strong Quarter 3 2025.
  
  
• Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% in December 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in November 2025 (unrevised from the previous ONS publication) and a fall of 0.8% in October 2025 (revised up from a 0.9% fall in the previous ONS publication). Non-store retailers' volumes rose in December 2025, following falls in October and November, with online jewellers reporting that demand for precious metals picked up in December.
  
  
• Annual sales volumes rose 1.3% over the year to 2025, with increases in both food and non-food stores, as well as non-store retailers.

Retail sales in December

• Sales volumes fell by 0.3% in the three months to December 2025 (Quarter 4) compared with the three months to September 2025 (Quarter 3). When compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, sales volumes rose by 2.1%.
  
  
• Sales volumes rose by 0.4% over the month during December 2025, following a 0.1% fall in November 2025, and rose by 2.5% over the year to December 2025.
  
  
• Volumes were down by 1.5% compared with their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level in February 2020.

Retail sector volumes

• Sales volumes fell over Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025. This was partly because of a strong Quarter 3 (July to Sept) for supermarkets, which are included in food stores, with retailers mentioning both good weather and the UEFA Women’s EURO 2025 tournament boosting volumes. Non-store retailers fell in Quarter 4 2025 as a result of falls in October and November. In November 2025, retailers suggested that reduced demand for precious metals affected sales. Automotive fuel sales also fell on the quarter, following a stronger July period in Quarter 3 2025.
  
  
• Total sales volumes rose over the month to December 2025. Non-store retailers rebounded, with online jewellers confirming renewed demand for precious metals, following a lull in November 2025. There was also a small rise for supermarkets and sales of automotive fuel, while non-food stores (the total of department, clothing, household, and other non-food stores) fell 0.9% on the month.

Online retail values

• The amount spent online, known as "online spending values", rose by 2.1% when comparing Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 with Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025. It rose by 8.4% when comparing the same period with Quarter 4 2024.
  
  
• With the monthly series, online sales values rose by 1.8% over the month to December 2025, and by 11.1% when comparing December 2025 with December 2024.
  
  
• Total spend (the sum of in-store and online sales) rose by 0.8% over the month. As a result, the proportion of sales made online rose from 28.0% in November 2025 to 28.3% in December 2025.

Sales volumes in 2025

• Retail sales volumes rose by 1.3% in 2025, following a rise of 0.2% in 2024, and falls in both 2022 and 2023. Despite this being the second consecutive annual rise, volumes did not recover from the 2023 fall, and remained below 2019 pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.
  
  
• In 2025, all main sectors except automotive fuel rose on the year. Food stores rose for the first time since 2021, but did not fully recover from their fall in 2024. Both non-food stores and non-store retailers rose for the second year in a row, recovering from drops in 2023. However, volumes for non-store retailers remained clearly below their peak in 2021. This peak was attributed to the temporary closure of large sectors of physical retail, which allowed online portals to meet consumer demand throughout the pandemic.
  
  
• Sales volumes for automotive fuel fell over the year in 2025, following a rise in 2024, returning to just below their 2023 levels.

Industry Commentary

BRC:

Responding to the Retail Sales Index - Office for National Statistics, which showed sales up 4.9% by value, and up 3.1% by volume, Harvir Dhillon, Economist at the British Retail Consortium, said: 

“ONS retail sales figures show a fragmented market over Christmas, with larger retailers seeing sales drop 1.6% while smaller independents grew 6.4%. Food sales remained relatively stable, but this was owing to rising food inflation rather than increased sales. Typically popular Christmas gifting categories such as electricals, books and health and beauty saw sales drop as people tightened their purse strings. Shoppers are continuing to hold back spending as they manage the rising cost of living.
 
“This performance capped off a difficult year, where significant cost pressures have been weighing down on the industry. If these costs continue to climb, whether through higher business rates bills or higher costs of employment, then it will be ordinary workers who are most affected as more entry-level and flexible jobs disappear. This means more people tightening their belts, and less spending in the economy in future.”

PwC:

Commenting on the Office of National Statistics retail sales index for December 2025, Jacqueline Windsor, Head of Retail at PwC UK:

“After two consecutive months of month-on-month decline, seasonally adjusted retail sales volumes excluding petrol ticked up in December by 0.3% compared with November – or the equivalent of 0.6% more pounds in the till.

“However, the final quarter of the year when retailers traditionally make most of their money was a disappointment, with sales volumes falling by 0.3% and retailers unable to make up for the ground they lost in October and November, admittedly against the backdrop of stronger sales at the end of summer.

“It’s now clear that consumers held back in the run-up to Christmas. Even as Budget uncertainty dissipated, shoppers did not buy as much as retailers hoped, due to the later start to Christmas shopping and factors such as higher grocery price inflation meaning they had to divert their spending from discretionary categories to essentials.

“Compared with December 2024, sales volumes did rise by 3.1% (or 4.9% in cash terms), but retail sales volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels.

“With high street footfall declining thanks to the rainy weather in the run-up to Christmas, more shoppers diverted their spending online. Online sales penetration rose to 28.3%, the highest for four years, since January 2022 at the tail end of the pandemic.

“Overall, the final quarter of 2025 will have been a disappointment for many retailers. We have already seen profit downgrades and corporate distress amongst some high-profile names, and there may be more to come as post-Christmas trading announcements continue through January.

“Looking ahead to 2026, retailers will be hoping that falling inflation and interest rates encourage shoppers to part with their hard-earned cash, or else the bad news we’ve already seen at the start of the year could be a taste of things to come.”

Omnisend:

Marty Bauer, senior e-commerce expert at Omnisend, comments: “Retailers will breathe a sigh of relief that last month saw a boost in sales, however it would have been a pretty bleak outlook for the high street if the Christmas shopping season had failed.

“It suggests that while consumers remained cautious throughout autumn, including during the busy Black Friday period, many were still willing to open their wallets as festivities commenced.

“Online sales picked up again in December, with jewellers reporting stronger demand for precious metals. That points to shoppers holding off on higher-value or giftable purchases until later in the season.

“The pattern we’re seeing is one of delayed decision-making rather than lost demand. Consumers appear to be waiting longer, comparing prices more closely and committing only when they feel confident they’re getting genuine value. That is why shopping comparison sites, such as Google Shopping, have boomed in popularity.

“Retailers who aligned promotions with real moments of intent, rather than relying on blanket discounting, are likely to have performed best in December. While the Boxing Day sales now often start in the days before Christmas, Brits welcome discounts as cost-of-living challenges persist.”

Source : ONS, BRC, PwC

Image : Smileus / iStock / 624124526

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