Middle East Conflict Contributes to Retail Sales Decline in April

The BRC and KPMG have published retail sales data for April, covering the 4 weeks from 5 April – 2 May 2026. 

Key points:

• UK Total retail sales decreased by 3% year on year in April, against a growth of 7% in April 2025. This was below the 12-month average growth of 1.8%.
  
  
• Food sales decreased by 2.5% year on year in April, against a growth of 8.2% in April 2025. This was below the 12-month average growth of 3.5%.
  
  
• Non-Food sales decreased by 3.3% year on year in April, against a growth of 6.1% in April 2025. This was below the 12-month average growth of 0.3%.
  
  
• In-Store Non-Food sales decreased by 4.0% year on year in April, against a growth of 5.6% in April 2025. This was below the 12-month average growth of 0.4%.
  
  
• Online Non-Food sales decreased by 2.3% year on year in April, against a growth of 7% in April 2025. This was below the 12-month average growth of 0.3%.
  
  
• The online penetration rate (the proportion of Non-Food items bought online) increased to 37.9% in April from 37.4% in April 2025. This was above the 12-month average of 37.5%.
  
  
• Taking March and April together, and comparing them with the same two-month period in 2025 (to account for the timing of Easter): UK Total retail sales increased by 1.5% year on year.

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive at the British Retail Consortium, said:
“April’s sales fall was largely driven by the Easter shift, with food hit hardest. But weak consumer confidence also played a role as fears about the Middle East conflict driving up living costs led shoppers to rein in. Big-ticket purchases fell, with the recent recovery in furniture losing steam, and uncertainty around summer holidays hitting discretionary spend. With the World Cup coming, retailers hope it will provide a lift, and early signs show demand for TVs and sound systems picking up. 

“Global events might be out of government’s hands, but costs imposed at home are not. Ministers must act now to curb the impact on consumers from soaring costs. That means cutting non-commodity energy charges – which include the taxes and levies that make up to two thirds of retailers’ energy bills, scrapping or reforming the triple tax on packaging, and delaying the upcoming changes to the way we measure the nutritional content of food. The time to act is now if government wants to protect consumers and support growth in the challenging few months ahead.”
 
Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer, Retail & Leisure, KPMG, said:
“It was a disappointing April for the retail sector, even factoring in an earlier Easter shifting some spending into March. Bar marginal growth for beauty, health and jewellery, retail sales fell across all other categories. 
 
“Consumer confidence has been further dampened by rising prices due to the Iran conflict, with consumers cautious about potential ongoing effects. As a result, the retail sector is facing a challenging start to spring/summer, but there is hope that holiday demand and the World Cup still manage to unlock spending in the weeks and months ahead.”
 
Food & Drink sector performance | Sarah Bradbury, CEO, IGD, said:
“The impact of food price inflation is increasingly split by income, as lower income households are already feeling the impact of higher fuel costs and remain highly value focused, while higher income shoppers are more insulated, supported by elevated market interest rates and the upside for savings. Retail value growth has slowed sharply year on year and volumes remain fairly flat, signalling continued budget management for shoppers. News of a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East lifted shopper confidence briefly, but with broader energy market disruption likely to feed through to food inflation with a time lag, pressure is expected to build over the next few months. Food and drink retailers should plan for continued trade down from shoppers, heightened promotional activity, and uneven demand.”

Source : BRC-KPMG

Image : Stokkete / shutterstock / 503419588

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