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GfK: Consumer Confidence Creeps Up In November Despite High Inflation

Consumer Confidence - shutterstock_202554910 - 725 x 500
  • Seven-point jump in major purchase index is good news for retailers in run-up to Black Friday and Christmas

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased three points to stand at -14 in November. Four measures were up, and one was down in comparison to the October 22nd announcement.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, comments: “Headline consumer sentiment has ticked upwards this month despite decade-high inflation, fears of higher prices and worries over rising interest rates, and as the deepening cost-of-living squeeze leaves UK household finances worse off this winter.

"The view on the general economic situation over the past year and year to come is better this month (up six points and three points respectively) but consumers are slightly less buoyant on their personal finances. This weakness is important as it reflects day-to-day plans to save or spend and is a strong driver of overall UK economic growth.

"However, one highlight for both physical and virtual retail is the seven-point jump in major purchase intentions in the run-up to Black Friday and Christmas. Is this a sign that shoppers are ready to bounce back, after last year’s cancelled family gatherings, with a Christmas splurge in coming weeks? That’s how it looks - but consumers also know that when the festivities are over it’s going to be a tough year in 2022.” 

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – November 2021

The Overall Index Score increased three points to -14 in November. Four measures were up, and one was down in comparison to the October 22nd announcement. 

Personal Financial Situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances over the last 12 months has dropped two points to -7; this is nine points better than November 2020. 

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has increased one point to +2; this is seven points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is six points better at -40; this is 27 points higher than in November 2020.  

Expectations for the general economic situation over the coming 12 months have improved by three points to -23; this is 27 points higher than November 2020.

Major Purchase Index

The Major Purchase Index has increased by seven points to -3 in November; this is 25 points higher than it was this month last year.

Savings Index

The Savings Index has weakened by seven points to +15 in November; this is four points higher than this time last year.

Source : Joe Staton, GfK 

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24 November 2021

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Thank you for the excellent presentation that you gave at Woodbury Park on Thursday morning. It was very interesting and thought-provoking for our Retail members. The feedback has been excellent.

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Martin Elliott. Chief Executive - Home Hardware.
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